Won Betting Tips
The statement I’m about to make will most certainly shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most of us are under the impression that everyone betting sports wins long term, so long as they bet often enough, this isn’t actually true.
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Wait you’re not surprised? Of course you’re not! Everyone knows the bookmaker has an advantage so more times than not sports bettors lose. However, what if there was a way that the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage?
This is in fact possible.
Have you ever heard the term advantage player? This is a label gambling companies assign to players who only bet when the odds are in their favor.
Even though “on average” bookmakers have a 4.55% advantage on straight bets (2.38% @ -105), the key word is “average”; advantage players find bets where the bookmaker’s advantage is negative. Whether your goal is to be a sports betting pro, or just earn a little money on the side, the first step to winning is to stop making –EV bets.
If you understand what expected value, -EV, and +EV mean, go ahead and skip down to our advice on finding +EV bets. If you’re not familiar with this concept continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Explained
Expected value is a term professional gamblers use on a regular basis. To explain what it means in simple terms I’ll use an example. Let’s say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each outcome of tails. We could flip coins for all eternity and neither of us will ever have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. While there will be swings back and forth, as long as we flip the coin enough times eventually we’ll both break even. This particular bet has neutral expected value.
Now let’s say I’m tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. What happens now is half the time I win $1.10 and half the time I lose $1.00. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I have a positive expectation (+EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the opposite, every flip of the coin is 5 cents –EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (+EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases neutral expected value. Winning sports betting requires avoiding –EV and finding +EV bets.
Finding +EV Sports Bets
The reasons most sports bettors don’t spend time learning the tricks of advantage players is it’s slightly time consuming, most have no leads how to do it, are overwhelmed or when they do learn it’s not actually fun. If you’re looking for something fun we suggest paint balling, a trip to the amusement park, circus or what have you. If you’re looking to actually make money then you’ll need to know how to find +EV bets.
At TheSportsGeek.com we have several articles on this topic you’ll want to read:
Teaser Betting Strategy – This is perhaps the easiest method a sports bettor can use to find bets with a positive advantage. When you also read our article on the current betting market, you’ll realize just before game time the lines are efficient. Teasers are based off the current betting lines, so no longer do you need to go do any deep analysis to find out whether as straight bet is +EV. Here find spots where teasers increase the win rate by enough and you’ll have a +EV bet. This is all described in our article on teaser betting strategy.
Prop Betting Strategy – Prop bets are generally considered the easiest wagering opportunity for sports bettors to beat. In our article on prop betting strategy I give a full break down of the prop bet “which team will score first”. After reading that article you’ll have enough information to start finding +EV bets on this specific prop. In time, as you get experience you’ll be able to solve other prop bet on your own and then beat them using as similar method to the one I show in the example.
Must Read Sports Betting Books
If you’re new to advantage betting some books that will help you greatly with the basics are:
1) Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong
2) Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Yao
Once you’re much more experienced and ready to take things to the next level then I strongly Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street by Elihu D. Feustel. This is a book for advanced sports bettors and not a good read for anyone not already winning. It is heavily math, statistic and handicapping intensive. If you eventually decided on a career as an advantage player at some point down the road you’ll want to work to understand what Elihu D. Feustel shares in this book.
No matter what methods you use to find +EV bets, the information contained in our article on finding maximum value is a must read. Next, if you’re thinking about purchasing picks, read our article on winning without a tout. In that article you’ll also find some information on getting free picks. Use that with the earlier mention getting max value article, and shopping the market and you’ll likely be turning an easy, yet slightly time consuming profit.
With this out of the way let me now cover the easiest way to get your bankroll started: “Bonus Whoring”.
A Free Lunch in Sports Betting
If you’ve heard the saying there is no such thing as a free lunch, well think again. Here are some bonuses that sports betting sites offer to players making their first deposit:
At the time of writing this Bookmaker is offering a massive holiday bonus of 25% up to $2,500 sports + 175% up to $1,000 poker + 100% up to $250 casino. If you don’t have an account, visit Bookmaker and register using Bonus Code THEGEEK on the sign up field. After logging in, head to the cashier where the available “deposit bonus codes” will be listed. Use this code and you’ll now have the added advantage of massive free play bonus.
Bovada offers 10% cash bonus on bettor’s first deposit. The best thing about this bonus is it is instant and it’s cash (as opposed to free play). Also no crazy strings such as rollover, hold period etc, simply roll your initial deposit and 10% bonus over a single time and it is free and clear your own money to keep.
Here you can get up to $1,000 in free bonus money. Getting the max bonus is a multi step process. First sign up, and be sure to leave the Promotion Code field empty. Next follow the steps on our BetOnline Bonus page to negotiate a massive bonus with their live support.
When you combine +EV bets with free bonus cash, winning at sports betting is a cinch. The only piece of the puzzle you have left is protecting and growing your bankroll. Our best advice here, never wager more than a few percent of what you have on hand on a single game.
Once you have this all down, while it takes other sports bettors a lot of luck to win, the opposite is true for you. A bookie beating an advantage player who uses responsible bet sizing, keeps his composure during downswings while making only +EV bets, is quite difficult. Follow this and the only ways you lose is horrible bad luck!
Once again don’t forget to take advantage of the bonus at www.Bovada.lv!
We wish you the best of luck and know soon enough you’ll be shacking your head confused the same at us, whenever you hear the statement “most sports bettors lose” and clearly you won’t be on of them.
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
Parlays are the ultimate big-win chaser’s dream. The combined bets provide massive potential payouts on nominal wagers, and nearly every online sportsbook offers them. Though the odds are low for a given parlay to hit, the possible winnings are huge, and a handful of lucky bettors have cashed in some gargantuan parlay jackpots at legal sportsbooks worldwide.
But before jumping into some of the craziest parlay wins on record, it helps to better understand the betting method, its upsides, and the inherent risk.
How Parlays Work
In simple terms, parlays are “all or nothing” bets. Parlays combine two or more individual bets into a single wager. This ramps up the odds so that a parlay pays much higher than any of the individual bets.
For example, I combined four bets with odds of -110, -110, +150, and +115 today on PointsBet, and the parlay payout came in at +1859. A $20 bet would pay more than $390.
Of course, there’s a catch. For a parlay to win, each individual bet must win. If you combine four bets into a parlay and one of them loses, you lose your bet even if the other three bets won. For that reason, parlays are risky bets, and most experts encourage you to steer clear.
On the other hand, casual bettors might enjoy making a weekly parlay every NFL Sunday or while any other league is in the thick of its season. There’s nothing wrong with making the occasional parlay bet as long as you acknowledge that your odds to win are low, similar to playing a slot machine.
Five Crazy Parlay Wins
Some bettors have beat the odds and been lucky enough to nab astronomical parlay wins in the past. Here’s a round-up of five amazing parlay wins.
The Three Sport Combo
Last year brought a huge windfall to one FanDuel sportsbook bettor who won on a $200 parlay combining 15 NBA, NFL, and NHL bets. The bet hit in November 2019 when all of the bettor’s moneyline wagers won for a payout of $229,276.
The moneyline bets boosted this wager over the edge for a massive win, because moneylines tend to offer longer odds if you pick the underdog. Whether it was sheer luck or educated guessing, this bettor came out on top.
The Charcuterie Parlay
In March 2019, sportsbooks were starting to take off in Mississippi on the heels of an August 2018 launch. March brought one noteworthy parlay win that featured a little bit of everything.
Rather than sticking to one type of bet, this bettor wagered $25 on a 20-leg parlay. The parlay was a veritable smorgasbord of bets and sports, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The wager covered a slate of Friday-night games across the NBA and NCAA basketball.
According to ESPN, the customer at BetAmerica sportsbook in Vicksburg, Mississippi’s Riverwalk Casino wagered on 14 favorites, three underdogs, and three “over” totals bets.
After a few close calls, the 20-leg bet won, netting the bettor a $104,412 win.
The Homecoming Special
In September 2020, a BetMGM customer raked in a $152,341 win on a $10 parlay.
The 11-leg bet featured five moneyline bets, five totals, and a single point spread wager (Duke +20.5). The majority of the bets predicted college football match-ups, but a few additional professional games sent the bet over the edge. The Rockets-Lakers under and the Yankees moneyline contributed to the win, resulting in a huge payday for the lucky bettor.
The 15-Leg NFL Slate
Amateur sports bettor Tayla Polia’s parlay success story is featured on countless lists just like this one, and for good reason. In 2015, Polia placed a $5, 15-leg parlay that included 14 point spread bets and one totals wager for the Steelers-Broncos matchup.
To her surprise, Polia’s bet won and paid out 20,000-1 for a cool $105,000. She actually thought the bet had failed initially because the Giants lost their match-up. But Polia had bet on the team to cover, which they did, completing her parlay and netting her a huge win.
Root, Root, Root For The Home Team
In 2015, MLB fans worldwide witnessed history. For the first time since the league’s inception, all 15 home teams won their games on a single day.
One lucky bettor cemented his place in the story by predicting the event with a 15-leg parlay bet. The Ireland bettor had plenty of reason to celebrate proverbial Irish luck when his ~$78 bet, placed at William Hill’s sportsbook, won him $100,810.
Should I Place Parlay Bets?
You may see these wins and instantly open your sportsbook app to start placing a few parlays for yourself. Before you do, it’s important to note that these wins are the exception, not the rule. The sage advice from sports betting experts is to stay away from parlays.
Won Betting Tips Today
However, it’s okay to place a parlay bet once in a while, especially if you feel confident about a select few match-ups. Parlays can be a fun way to get in on the action and invest yourself in the match-ups of the day. Just play responsibly and keep in mind that your chances of winning any parlay are slim.
Parlay Tips
How To Win Betting Tips
If you’re planning to place parlay bets, there are a few tips to keep in mind.
Less Is More
Sure, a 15-leg parlay is enticing, especially if the payout has four, five, or even six digits. But the more bets you include, the less likely you are to win. IF you’re interested in placing parlays, keep them simple at first. Combine two or three bets and see how they perform. If you’re lucky, you might win a few hundred dollars.
Favoritism Can Be A Benefit
Underdogs offer better payouts, but that’s only because they are viewed as less likely to win their match-up. If you’re building a parlay of moneyline bets, pay close attention to the odds. If one team is heavily favored to win, that might be the wiser pick.
Carefully Consider Home Team Bets
Won 1x2 Betting Tips
Unless it’s the mid-90s and you’re placing Chicago Bulls bets every week, try to steer clear of home-team bets when you’re building a parlay. I’ve fallen victim to the trap many times–I place a 5-leg parlay bet that includes my Chicago Bears to win only to find a disappointing 4-1 parlay that loses me my initial bet thanks to a crushing Chicago loss.
If you want to bet on your home team, keep that wager out of your parlays or risk disappointment.
Point Spreads Even Out The Odds
How To Always Win Betting
Betting on point spreads gives you smaller individual payouts, but combining them into parlays can produce big potential wins. Point spreads even out the odds of a given match-up, giving the predicted underdog a chance to cover the spread even if they lose the match.