How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting

• How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Calculator
• How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Line
• Sports Betting In Florida

Sports Betting Edge Table Calculating The House Edge You can calculate the house edge on a particular game by converting the odds on both sides into implied probability. The favored team’s implied win probability percentage minus the underdog’s implied probability yields the edge built into a bet by the sportsbook. Let’s say you crunch the numbers, handicap the game, consult with a few other bettors you trust, and conclude that the Vikings’ true odds are 65%. You are 65% certain they’ll win by your calculations. Subtract the implied odds from your true odds (65% – 60%), and you’ve got a 5% edge. Here we add the term EV or Estimated Value, where we add a few expectations and calculate the average value of bets. Example for a 100% $100 bonus with 12xB requirements: You have to wager $1200 in total, since each bet gives the house about 5% you will lose on average $1200. 0,05 = $60.

Using Home Field Advantage to Advance Your Betting

Many discussions have taken place over the years as to why teams perform better at home. Some factors are disputed, but the general consensus is that the home team is aided by both a psychological lift from the home crowd and this crowd making it difficult for the away team, familiarity with the playing grounds, less travel and home comforts (the away team having to stay in a hotel) and even officialdom favoring the home team.

Whatever the factors are, a home bias is there in every sport, and in the following article I will explain exactly how to work out the size of the edge, both in general terms and for individual teams – with the ability to use these calculations across many sports and leagues.

How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Calculator

Home Field Advantage in Sport – General Calculations

There are two ways to define an edge in home field advantage in sport. One is to focus purely on the number of wins a team has, the other is to focus on the number of goals/points/runs a team has scored. Here, I’ll use the 2012/13 English Premier League Table as an example:

Home Field Advantage in Sport – Winning Edge

By doing a few simple calculations we can quantify the effect home advantage had on this season. Under the home section of the table, if we add up the number of wins, draws and losses, we can see that the season looked like this:

Home wins : 166

Draws : 108

Away wins : 106

Obviously, if home advantage wasn’t a factor, the number of home wins and away wins would be similar – however here, you can see that home advantage plays a major part. If we make the assumption that the number of draws is around where it should be (over a 380 game it should be approaching the norm) then we can see, that of the other 272 games, 166 were home wins and 106 were away wins. Without home advantage, you would expect these numbers to be both around 136 (272 / 2).

So what can we take from this? Well we can calculate that a home team in general will have a 22% more chance of winning than expected if there wasn’t home advantage. We work this out using this calculation:

Number of home wins (166) / Expected home wins without home field advantage (136) = 1.22

Similarly, we can do the same calculation for away teams.

Number of away wins (106) / Expected home wins without home field advantage (136) = 0.78

So, the away teams have a 22% less chance of winning than expected.

Home Field Advantage in Sport – Goals Edge (or points/runs)

There is another way to formulate home advantage looking at the table, and that is by looking at the number of goals scored. In this season there were 592 goals scored at home, and 471 scored away from home (once again an easy calculation by looking at the league table). This equates to 1063 goals over the 380 games in the season.

You can now work out how many goals should be scored per game:

1063 total goals / 380 games = 2.80 goals per game

From this without home advantage, you would expect teams to score 1.40 goals per game each. However, there were 592 home goals in 380 games and 471 away goals, which works out as:

How To Calculate Edge In Sports Betting Line

592 (home goals) / 380 games = 1.56 goals per game

471 (away goals) / 380 games = 1.24 goals per game

From these figures you can work out how many more goals than expected a team will score at home/away:

Number of home goals per game (1.56) / Number of expected goals (1.4) = 1.11

Number of away goals per game (1.24) / Number of expected goals (1.4) = 0.89

From these figures you can see that a team will generally score 11% more goals at home than expected, and an away team will score 11% less goals away from home than expected.

Sports Betting In Florida

You’ll be able to figure out both these figures for any sport that features a league table that has home results listed separately (you’ll be able to find these for many sports, and many leagues). Perhaps you may feel that a sample of one season is not enough, so maybe you could crunch the numbers for more than one season – the same rules apply.

Knowing how more often than the norm a team wins at home will be useful for the “match result” bets you’ll place in the future.

Knowing how many more goals/points/runs a team scores at home will be useful for “point spreads”, “correct scores”, and various line bets (including Asian Handicap betting in soccer, puck line in hockey and run line in baseball).

Home Field Advantage in Sport – Individual Teams

However, that is not quite the end of the story. We’ve looked at the figures in general terms, but what about those teams who seem much better than usual at home, and not so good on the road (or vice versa).

Let’s take a look at Everton in the above table. Throughout the whole season they managed sixteen wins, fifteen draws and seven losses. Now we have already worked out that a team has a 22% more chance of winning at home, so of the sixteen games won, we can work out how many of these should have been home wins and away wins. Without home advantage, you would expect 8 home wins and 8 away wins, but adding in the 22% home advantage we see:

8 (expected home wins) * 1.22 (home advantage) = 9.76

8 (expected away wins) *0.78 (away disadvantage) = 6.24

Rounding these figures up, we would expect Everton to have 10 wins at home, and just six on the road – however when we look at the table, Everton actually have 12 wins at home and just four on the road. Using these figures, we can work out that Everton in that season were particularly good at home, and particularly poor on the road.

Knowing information like this about individual teams can give you a big edge in your gambling, and once again, the same calculations can be done across many sports and many leagues.

Home Field Advantage in Sport – The Betting Edge

Knowing exactly what edge a home team may have in a particular sport, either in general, or for individual teams, will give you a greater insight into that particular sport, and give you a greater feel than your run of the mill punter. With the ability to use the calculations above in many sports and many leagues, you may even get a head start on the bookmaker, especially on some of the lesser known sports and leagues.

More Advanced Betting Strategy Articles:

What is the vig in sports betting? Quite simply, the vig, vigorish, or juice, is the house edge. The word itself carries a bit of a negative connotation because it is also used to describe the usually high interest charged by loan sharks.

The goal of every sportsbook is to set lines that draw an equal amount of action to either side of a bet. Once that happens, the sportsbook can earn the vig from the difference between what the losing side lays on the bet and how much the winning side is paid out.

That means, in a perfect world, online sportsbooks would have no interest in the outcome of the sporting events you bet on. They don’t have to sweat results and can rely solely on the vig to earn profits that most players agree the sportsbooks are entitled to. In actuality though, it is difficult getting the action evenly split across lines, which means the sportsbooks can lose money if the action is not balanced.

Read on for more on how it works, how sportsbooks use the vig to earn money, and how you can calculate vig yourself just by looking at the lines.

How do sportsbooks make money?

Sportsbooks earn money by collecting a commission on bets. This is the vig.

Most of the time, that vig is less than 5%. It’s an amount most gamblers are happy to part with in exchange for the service provided by the sportsbooks.

While sportsbooks don’t post the vig, it’s easy enough to calculate yourself using the odds. That’ll tell you when a sportsbook is getting out of line with the vig on a bet and help you avoid it.

How is the vig calculated?

Unfortunately, sportsbooks don’t post the vig on bets, so it’s not that easy to find. However, sportsbooks do post the odds, and the odds will ultimately tell you everything you need to know about the vig.

You just need to do a little math first.

The complete formula you can use to calculate vig yourself is:

(Favorite odds/(Favorite odds + 100) X 100) + (100/(Underdog odds + 100) X 100) – 100 = Vig

How to calculate the juice yourself

Of course, not every bet with only two possible outcomes pays the same odds on both sides as in the example above.

The moneyline for the same NFL opener described above might be Texans (+350) @ Chiefs (-460).

In this case, or any other where one side is a favorite over the other, you can calculate the vig yourself by converting the odds to implied probability.

Then, you simply add the two probabilities together and compare that number to 100%. The difference is the vig.

You can convert negative moneyline odds for the favorite to a probability by extrapolating the figure and using it in the following formula:

Odds/(Odds + 100) X 100 = Probability

Therefore, at -460, sportsbooks are giving the Chiefs an 82.14% chance of winning (460/(460 + 100) X 100 = 82.14%)

You can convert positive moneyline odds for the underdog to a probability by extrapolating the figure and using it in the following formula:

100/(Odds + 100) X 100 = Probability

Therefore, at +350, sportsbooks are giving the Texans a 22.22% chance of winning (100/(350 + 100) X 100 = 22.22%)

Add 82.14% to 22.22% and you get 104.36%. The difference between 104.36% and 100% is 4.36%

That means the sportsbook is earning a 4.36% vig on the Texans @ Chiefs moneyline.

How does vig work?

Perhaps the best way to see how vig works in betting is to look at a simple example.

The Houston Texans are scheduled to visit the Kansas City Chiefs to open the NFL season.

Most sportsbooks have set the totals line for the game somewhere around O/U 54.5. That means you can bet either the total combined score at over or under that line of 54.5 points. At most sportsbooks, you’ll book the bet at -110 odds, whether you bet the over or the under.

The sportsbooks have set the line at a point where it should draw an equal amount of bets on the over and the under. If there is heavier betting on one side, a sportsbook will move the line to incentivize people to bet the other side until there is an equal amount of betting on both sides.

The -110 odds means whether you bet the under or over, you’ll have to lay down $110 to try to win $100, plus your bet back. For the purposes of this example, let’s say $110,000 is bet on each side for a total of $220,000 in wagers.

Remember, for a totals bet including a half-point, there are only two possible outcomes and only one side can win. For argument’s sake, let’s say the game ends 31-27 Chiefs, making for a total of 58 points. That means the over wins.

Since $110,000 was bet on the over at -110 odds over, bettors will be paid out $100,000 in winnings, plus the $110,000 originally bet, for a total of $210,000.

The sportsbooks will take the $110,000 bet on the over and return it to the winners. The other $100,000 will come from the $110,000 lost on under bets.

That leaves the sportsbooks with a $10,000 profit, meaning the vig earned on the $220,000 in totals bets for this game was $10,000.

Of course, $10,000 is approximately 4.5% of $220,000, meaning the sportsbooks earned a 4.5% vig on the bet.

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What’s the difference between vig and overround?

There really is no difference between vig and overround in gambling. Although the number might be expressed differently, both the vig and overround are how sportsbooks make money.

Whether you call it an overround or a vig, it is still the profit margin sportsbooks factor into the price, or odds, of any bet.