Geico 500 Predictions
- Geico 500 2020
- Geico 500 Results
- Nascar Geico 500 Predictions
- 2020 Geico 500 Predictions
- Nascar Geico 500 Predictions
Mar 01, 2021 NBC Sports' Jeff Burton breaks down the multiple restarts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and how William Byron played his cards just right and came away with a win. Green-flag passes, crazy restarts, the No. 5 back in Victory Lane at Las Vegas. NASCAR odds for the GEICO 500 are out as NASCAR betting shifts to Talladega Superspeedway on Monday, June 22. GEICO 500 co-favorites Chase Elliott and Joey Logano currently sit. The GEICO 500 can be seen Sunday at 2 p.m. What are the betting odds for the GEICO 500? Joey Logano 8/1: Brad Keselowski 8/1: Kevin Harvick 10/1: Clint Bowyer 10/1: Denny Hamlin 10/1. The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Talladega Superspeedway on Monday June 22 from Talladega, Alabama and VegasInsider.com expert Micah Roberts previews the races, plus he provides Top 5 NASCAR Picks and Predictions for for the NASCAR Geico 500.
- June 17
- by Micah Roberts
- VegasInsider.com
NASCAR Cup Series
GEICO 500 Picks
*Race moved to Monday after rain postponed GEICO 500 on Sunday.Date: Monday, June 22, 2020
TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Talladega, Alabama
It’s Talladega Superspeedway time where a driver's true rating is diminished because of so many obstacles set before them between the car, speeds at 200 mph, attitude of the 2.66-mile high-banked track, and poor luck of being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Any driver can win as opposed to a normal race where maybe only 14 drivers have a chance.
Maybe a driver can better explain the nuances we'll see in Sunday's Geico 500.
“I have no idea,” said Kevin Harvick. “You just show up and see how it develops. All you can do is show up for a weekend at Talladega and see how it develops and go from there.”
The edges that teams have on normal tracks are wiped away at Talladega and Daytona because the cars are different. They got going too fast and had to slow down so for 30 years they used restrictor plates before going to the tapered spacer last year at Talladega. Both restrict air to the engine which reduces horsepower, although the spacer gives the driver more throttle response.
“The rules have changed, but the same racing principles apply,” Clint Bowyer said regarding his strategy for Talladega.“It’s all about finding your teammates, finding your allies.”
NASCAR Cup Odds
Talladega
- Chase Elliott +800
- Joey Logano +800
- Brad Keselowski +1000
- Denny Hamlin +1000
- Ryan Blaney +1100
- Kyle Busch +1100
- Kevin Harvick +1400
- Martin Truex Jr. +1400
- Kurt Busch +1500
- Aric Almirola +1600
- (Odds Subject to Change)
Talladega Speedway is a wide-open track and bettors will have a great chance to pick out a long shot to cash on Sunday. (AP)
Oddsmakers adjust to Talladega
Clint Bowyer, a two-time winner at Talladega, is a 20/1 betting choice to win this week and his immediate allies to draft with are his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates.
“You look around to see where Kevin (Harvick), Aric (Almirola) and Cole (Custer) are on the track,” Bowyer said. “Then you look around to see where the Penske and Roush guys are, plus the other Ford drivers. Those are the guys most likely to help you out.”
It’s first about the team and manufacturer, but with a few laps to go it's all about the driver trying to win and if it means a Ford driver helping or using a Chevrolet to try and win, that is the plan at that instant.
Bowyer is one of my eight bets I have on a driver to win. I like to take a couple of the favorites, a couple of drivers in the 20/1 odds range, and then a few at 30/1 or higher odds. No betting matchups because the volatility of the track reduces the edge on a side. Sportsbooks understand this as well which is why Bubba Wallace is 40/1 to win this week when he’s normally 500/1. Harvick is 14/1 this week when he’s usually the 6/1 favorite.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook doesn’t have any driver posted in single digits (9/1 or lower) because “The Big One” wipes out favorites and longshots with equal vengeance.
I often say anyone can win, but the reality of it lately is that most of the favorites have been winning at Talladega. Some recent longshots to win? Aric Almirola was 18/1 in his 2018 win, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was 50/1 to win in 2017, David Ragan was 60/1 to win in 2013, and Brad Keselowski was 100/1 to win in 2009 when he was driving an underfunded car for his first career Cup win.
Handicapping Manufacturers
Lately, it’s been Ford having the edge as they’ve won eight of the last nine and 11 of the last 15 at Talladega. Team Penske’s trio of drivers with Joey Logano (3), Ryan Blaney (1), and Keselowski (5) have nine Talladega wins between them.
The only Chevrolet to win in the last nine Talladega races was driven by Chase Elliott last spring.
“Last year worked out really well for us,” Elliott said of his win. “It was kind of one of those races where things just kind of just fell in our lap there towards the end of the race. We were super patient and just very disciplined as a group. I’m looking forward to getting back to Talladega this weekend with the Mountain Dew/Little Caesars Chevy and trying to do it all again.”
Elliott is being offered at 14/1 odds. Three-time Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is the 10/1 co-favorite to win Sunday along with Joey Logano. Hamlin’s lone Talladega win was in 2014 and he’s taken on the role of being one of the best at getting out front on the Superspeedways. He’s got some tricks he uses and can propel his car off a side draft to gain speed better than anyone.
Hamlin is also cruising on adrenaline after winning his third race of the season Sunday at Homestead. The last time they raced on a Superspeedway they won the Daytona 500.
Keselowski is the driver I have keyed on the most for this race. He’s got everything you need when doing a checklist before firing away on him. Does he drive a Penske Ford? Check. Does he have more Talladega wins than any active driver? Check. Is his team doing well in 2020 with a new crew chief? Check. And he’s 12/1 and not even the favorite. I’m in.
I was going to bet Bowyer no matter what this week, but then I saw the paint job on the car he’ll be racing Sunday and I was sold even more. It’s the most in your face All-American car I’ve ever seen and it’s sponsored by Barstool Sports who Bowyer does a weekly podcast with Barstool owner Dave Portnoy.
“Talk about pressure,” Bowyer said with a laugh. “I’m sure I’m going to hear about it all week from Dave if we don’t run like we want to run. On the other hand, it would be fun to get a win in the Barstool Ford. Can you imagine that?”
On the hood of the red, white, and blue paint scheme, it says “back-to-back world war champs” and the side panel says “undefeated since 1776.”
GEICO 500
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Bet Now at DraftKings
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1) - Bet Now at DraftKings
3) #12 Ryan Blaney (14/1)
4) #10 Aric Almirola (25/1)
5) #6 Ryan Newman (30/1)
eNASCAR Picks - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)
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Jimmie Johnson crossed the overtime line just before the final caution came out.
Denny Hamlin recorded his 40th career NASCAR Cup Series victory last Sunday, becoming just the 20th driver in history to reach the milestone by winning the Dixie Vodka 400. It also was his third win of the 2020 NASCAR schedule, putting him one ahead of Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski for the lead. Hamlin will attempt to increase the margin and become the first driver to post back-to-back victories this year when he buckles in for Sunday's 2020 Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
Hamlin, Logano, and Keselowski are 10-1 co-favorites in the latest 2020 Geico 500 odds from William Hill. However, there are three more 2020 NASCAR at Talladega contenders listed at 12-1, according to oddsmakers. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET. You'll want to check out the latest NASCAR at Talladega predictions from Micah Roberts, the legendary Vegas bookmaker who pioneered wagering on racing, before locking in any 2020 Geico 500 picks.
Roberts is among the nation's premier NASCAR betting experts, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Logano at 13-2 in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed the victory by Hamlin, who wasn't one of the top three favorites, in the Toyota 500 last month.
Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on his predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400. Anyone who has followed his NASCAR picks is up huge year after year.
Now, Roberts has analyzed the field and odds for Sunday's 2020 NASCAR at Talladega race. He's sharing his winner and leaderboard right here.
2020 NASCAR at Talladega expert predictions
One shocker: Roberts is low on Kyle Busch, even though he's one of the top 2020 Geico 500 contenders at 12-1. In fact, Roberts says Busch, who has recorded just one victory and eight top-10 finishes in 29 career starts at Talladega, doesn't even crack the top 15.
Geico 500 2020
'His lone win (here) came in 2008,' Roberts told SportsLine. 'He's desperate for his first victory of 2020, but patience appears to be a problem with him at Talladega. That, and just no luck at all.'
Another curveball: Roberts is high on Ricky Stenhouse Jr., a long shot at 20-1 in the latest NASCAR at Talladega odds. The 32-year-old has recorded only two top-10 finishes this season but has had his best Cup Series performances on this track. Stenhouse has registered eight top-10s in 13 career starts at Talladega, including a victory in this race in 2017, one of his two wins in 268 series outings.
Geico 500 Results
'His 11th-place average at Talladega is the best among active drivers with at least three starts,' Roberts told SportsLine. 'His team has also had success this season with two top-five finishes.'
How to make 2020 NASCAR at Talladega picks
Roberts also is high on a dark horse who nearly won at Talladega last season. This driver is being underestimated by oddsmakers, and anyone who backs him could hit it big. You can only see who it is here.
So who wins the 2020 Geico 500? And which massive long shot stuns NASCAR? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected 2020 NASCAR at Talladega leaderboard from the nation's premier NASCAR handicapper, and find out.
2020 NASCAR at Talladega odds (via William Hill)
Denny Hamlin 10-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Kyle Busch 12-1
Chase Elliott 12-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Ryan Blaney 14-1
Alex Bowman 18-1
Kurt Busch 18-1
Martin Truex Jr. 18-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
William Byron 25-1
Jimmie Johnson 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Matt DiBenedetto 30-1
Erik Jones 30-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Austin Dillon 35-1
Matt Kenseth 35-1
Ryan Newman 40-1
Christopher Bell 50-1
Chris Buescher 50-1
John Hunter Nemechek 50-1
Nascar Geico 500 Predictions
Michael McDowell 60-1
Ryan Preece 60-1
Cole Custer 75-1
Ty Dillon 75-1
Brendan Gaughan 75-1
Corey LaJoie 125-1
2020 Geico 500 Predictions
Brennan Poole 150-1
Daniel Suarez 150-1
Nascar Geico 500 Predictions
Joey Gase 250-1
Timmy Hill 250-1
Gray Gaulding 300-1
Quin Houff 400-1
B.J. McLeod 400-1
J.J. Yeley 400-1