Best Basketball Tips Today

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Get the best college basketball bets today with Odds Shark’s college basketball consensus picks for March, 2021. See how the public bets on NCAAB.

The NBA and college basketball seasons are well under way. Both deserve your attention as both offer daily opportunities to make a profit.

Here’s a good rule of thumb: when it comes to betting on basketball, take the pundits’ picks with a grain of salt. Don’t rely on their “insider” knowledge. The folks who have the statistical data and predictive models necessary to accurately forecast game outcomes aren’t sharing them with the public. They keep their picks close to their chests to maximize their returns.

Having said that, you can improve your odds of winning your basketball wagers by using a number of time-proven tactics. I’ll showcase the top 10 below. These are the tips that’ll have the greatest impact on your NBA betting success.

  1. Check (And Double Check) The Starting Lineup

    2. As you know, a team’s starting lineup is instrumental to the team’s scoring potential. The coach understandably wants his best players in the game from the outset.

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    But there’s one thing that can throw a wrench into the works: late injuries.

    A starter who suffers an injury serious enough to keep him on the bench might have a huge impact on his team’s performance. For example, suppose Kyrie Irving sustains a torn ACL at the last minute. With him warming the bench, the Cavs might have trouble if they’re playing an aggressive team, such as the Warriors or Lakers.

    The takeaway: always check a team’s starting lineup before placing your bet. Make sure all starters are accounted for, and absent from the injury list. A corollary to this tip is to avoid placing your bet too early.

  2. Don’t Overestimate The Home Court Advantage

    3. Most teams do better on their home turf than on the road. They’re playing in front of their fans, who are rooting for them to win. The refs are sometimes biased. And they’re often more rested than visiting teams. The players are sleeping in their own beds and probably enjoying their favorite meals at home.

    That’s a far cry from the experience of staying in a hotel.

    Of course, the home court advantage doesn’t guarantee the home team will win. In fact, this article on ESPN argues that the advantage has become less and less pronounced over the last 40 years.

    The takeaway: home court advantage is still important when it comes to betting on basketball. But don’t overestimate its value.

  3. Forget Your Favorite Team

    4. If you’re a fan of the sport, you undoubtedly have a favorite team. And if you’re like most NBA fans, it’s probably the team in your city or county.

    The problem is, having a favorite can bias your betting decisions. You want your team to win. You’ve followed them for years and are emotionally invested in them. Understandably, when the time comes to place your bet, you’re inclined to bet with your heart.

    That’s fine if you’re just betting for fun. It’s like betting on your child to win his karate match, even though you’re certain his opponent is more skilled. Again, you’re emotionally invested.

    But that’s a losing proposition in sports betting. Emotions are almost guaranteed to lead to poor long-term results.

    The takeaway: if you want to make a profit, set aside your favorites and bet with your head. Cold, calculated logic, preferably supported with solid data, trumps emotion every time.

  4. Keep Your Eye On The Important Stats

    5. You can really go into the weeds with statistics when it comes to basketball. It’s not quite as bad as baseball, but you can still literally waste hours chasing data that fail to move the needle in any significant way.

    That doesn’t mean you should ignore stats altogether. Rather, identify the important stuff and disregard the rest.

    What basketball stats should you focus on? Here are several that can have a big influence on the outcomes of games:

    • turnovers
    • offensive rebounds
    • free-throw percentage
    • tempo (or pace)
    • true shooting percentage
    • offensive/defensive rating
    • home/away stats
    • how many starters are named Lebron James

    The takeaway: be wary of pursuing stats that don’t matter. Zero in on the ones that do, starting with those listed above.

  5. Watch For Big Line Moves

    6. This is something that most novice basketball betters miss. Oddsmakers adjust the lines on games as action pours into one side or the other. Their goal is to balance the action. When a lot of action flows in, that balancing act occasionally requires big, sudden line movements.

    Such movements reveal opportunity.

    For example, let’s say the Cavs are scheduled to play the Warriors. You notice that the line has shifted abruptly in favor of the latter. A smart play at that point would be to follow the line.

    What’s happening behind the scenes? What’s causing the line to move?

    Often, it’s smart, well-heeled sports bettors identifying and acting upon mistakes they perceive the oddsmakers to have made. Sometimes, the movements stem from major changes in personnel – for example, Lebron James yanking a hamstring during game-night practice.

    The takeaway: when lines move, there’s good reason. Follow the smart action.

  6. Look For Signs Of Court Fatigue

    7. Eighty-two games per season makes for an exhausting grind. The fact that starters manage to move themselves up and down the court late in the season is impressive. When they manage to post big numbers night after night, it’s downright remarkable.

    But they’re human and subject to the same physical laws as you and I. They get tired, particularly after playing several nights in a row. They suffer fatigue.

    The effect is even more pronounced on the road. Not only does the court time take its toll, but sleeping in hotels, eating out, and being away from the comforts of home does, too. Burnout is common after a long series.

    The takeaway: think twice before betting on a team suffering from court fatigue. There’s a good chance the players’ minds and bodies are operating at a suboptimal level.

  7. Bet Against The Spread On Losing Streaks

    8. No sportsbook in its right mind would offer straight win/loss bets on basketball. That’d be a surefire recipe to lose money.

    For example, imagine if the Warriors were scheduled to play the 76ers. If Bovada were to allow folks to bet on which team was likely to win, all of the action would flow to the Warriors. And if, as most people would predict, the Warriors were to beat the 76ers, Bovada would take a major drubbing.

    Spreads exist, in part, to prevent that from happening.

    When you bet against the spread (ATS), you’re not as interested in which team will win. Rather, you’re interested in how the teams perform with regard to the spread.

    When it comes to betting ATS in basketball, a lot of bettors focus on teams’ winning streaks. They figure a hot team is likely to maintain its momentum and cover the spread. But data show that’s actually untrue, especially for streaks that extend beyond three games.

    As the streak lengthens, more action pours into the side favoring the team enjoying the streak. Oddsmakers respond by adjusting the lines and point spreads. That makes it more difficult to bet against the spread on the favored team.

    The takeaway: if you’re going to bet against the spread, look for increased value among teams suffering losing streaks. These teams are avoided by most bettors, which means oddsmakers may give you an extra point or two in an attempt to balance the action.

  8. Ignore The Betting Trends

    9. While matchups, both in terms of teams and positions, are important to take into account, trends are all but irrelevant in basketball. Sure, you want to be familiar with a team’s track record. You want to be aware of its performance throughout the season.

    But trends in basketball betting refer to something completely different. Trends point to whether a team has managed to cover its spread in the last three games. They point to the volume and percentage of action favoring one team over another, according to the money line, the point spread, and the over/under.

    These numbers can be informative, but they’re far from predictive. They won’t help you to accurately forecast a game’s outcome. They merely give you general insight into what other bettors (many of them misinformed or uninformed) are doing with their bets.

    The takeaway: it’s fine to look at betting trends, if only to satisfy your curiosity. But don’t rely on them as useful data. It’s like examining a city’s annual population migration data to predict whether a certain family will move to another city this week. The trends don’t provide any insight to that end.

  9. Keep Your Eyes Peeled For “Value” Bets

    10. Oddsmakers are adept at setting lines. They use mountains of data and vetted predictive models to accurately forecast outcomes.

    But they’re not perfect. They make mistakes.

    Learn to identify these mistakes, and you can uncover significant value that’ll increase your odds of winning.

    Fair warning: it’s not easy. It requires deep analysis and relatively good math skills. But if you’re willing to roll up your sleeves and put in the work, you can find value bets that pay off.

    The takeaway: making smart basketball bets involves keeping your eyes open for hidden, unexploited value. Sometimes, you can find such value by noting big line movements. Most times, however, you’ll need to put in more effort.

  10. If You Bet The Over/Under, Do Your Research

    11. Betting the over/under in basketball is one of the simplest bets you can make. You don’t need to worry about money lines or point spreads. You don’t even care which team wins the game. The only thing you care about is the total number of points scored by the two teams.

    The simplistic nature of basketball over/under bets poses a downside: it tempts a lot of bettors to place them without doing even a modicum of research.

    Before you bet an over/under, take the following into account:

    • whether each team plays offensively or defensively
    • each team’s offensive efficiency
    • each team’s defensive efficiency
    • which sportsbook offers the best over/under odds
    • each team’s pace or tempo
    • each team’s level of fatigue
    • injuries sustained by starters

The takeaway – Don’t place an over/under bet without doing basic research. Handicap the totals using the factors above.

Conclusion

Basketball

Bookmark this page for daily NBA trends to help your basketball handicapping. Add your pick to the consensus – click the Matchup link for any game. You read that 77.4 percent of the basketball betting public is betting on the Celtics at -7.5 points. That means only 22.6 percent of bettors are backing the underdog Lakers. Best Basketball Tips Site Victorspredict is the best basketball tips site. First of all, before we give you the four essential tips to succeed in your basketball predictions, you must know that the first step will always be to determine just what chance the bookmakers believe your selection has of winning by looking at the odds offered. To find Basketball betting tips for today, visit JohnnyBet sports section which lists all of the latest postings detailing the events to wager on, odds, and an advised stake value. Lots of different sports are covered, depending on what worldwide events are taking place, with plenty of basketball bets of the day all through the season.

Basketball betting, both NBA and college games, attract a lot of action at places like Bovada, MyBookie, and BetOnline. But much of the action is uninformed or misinformed.

You can do better. Use the 10 tips highlighted above to give yourself an advantage at these and other top online sportsbooks.

The ultimate resource to help you find the best bets each and every day in the NBA.

This page is divided into 3 simple sections.

The first section lists all of our premium member best bets for the day. This section lists all the games for all sports, including NBA. If you don't have a membership at Doc's Sports you can test out our premium best bets risk free with a complimentary free $60 account here.

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Best Basketball Tips Today

The third section ties into the second section where our experts give advice on what to do with the information and how to spot a best bet in NBA.

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What Makes a Best Bet in NBA?

Tips

Best Basketball Tips Site

Here you will find a list of tips from our NBA experts that will help you understand what makes up a NBA best bet and what you should be looking for in order to spot one on your own.

DOC'S SPORTS – At Doc's Sports we consider the NBA Playoffs our specialty, and in the NBA Finals in particular we have had some incredible results lately. In the 2016 and 2017 NBA Finals we have earned nearly $5500 in profit combined for $100 bettors with a 9-2 result for 7-Unit plays during this span. For any playoff series we envision how we think the entire series will play out from game to game and then when the oddsmakers' lines differ from our vision then we attack with a large play. The bookies set their lines with the general betting public in mind and we find there are often weak lines in the NBA Finals since more dumb money is in the mix compared to a regular-season game. Sometimes a playoff series deviates from what we expect and at that point it is time to look again at the series as a whole and recalibrate your prediction for the series. It's a lot of work, but the results speak for themselves.

ROBERT FERRINGO – I always say: gambling isn't magic, it's mathematics. And if you look close enough and follow the numbers close enough the best bet situations will always present themselves. There are always motivational and situational factors to consider, particularly involving scheduling. But what takes a play from good to great is when you catch a team just begging for a statistical regression because of either exceptionally poor or exceptional outstanding shooting. Align that regression with other factors and voila, you have a big bet. An example was one of our first 7-Unit NBA Plays last year on Boston on Nov. 11. They had lost three straight games prior to taking on the Knicks. And despite being a Top 12 defensive team they had allowed their three previous opponents to shoot around 50 percent from the field and around 48 percent from 3-point range. In the meantime Boston, which was one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, was coming off a game in which they were held to just 93 points. Facing a rival, at home, looking to snap a losing streak, and due for both good offensive and defensive showings, the Celtics destroyed the Knicks 115-87 against a 5.5-point spread. That's how it's done.

INDIAN COWBOY – We have had some great success in the NBA, posting four straight winning years. One of the main things I look for are teams that recently faced each other and the line the second time they face each other. For example, last year the Warriors were -17 favorites over the Lakers and Golden State sent a clear message with a 149-106 blowout. Then two days later the Lakers and Warriors hooked up again, this time in Los Angeles, and we took the 'under'. Why? We took it because we knew that former Warriors Coach Luke Walton would undoubtedly make the necessary adjustments, appeal to the pride of his players, and make them play harder on the defensive end after giving up nearly 150 points in their previous game. See, most people think just because a game ended a certain way, it is going to be exactly that way or similar the next time around and that is not the case. Though we are big on revenge, sometimes there is an indirect revenge. In this case, the indirect revenge was the underdog play better, but the way they play better is to get better on what they were grotesquely bad at last time which was defense. The final score on November 25th was 109-85 and the Warriors won - and the game went well 'Under' the 230 which we took for a nice 3-Unit winner. Hence, when you are watching the NBA this year, look for teams that play each other again within a short span of time as it has the elements of the opposite pace it had in the first contest.

RAPHAEL ESPARZA – Betting the NBA in recent years has been weird because of the big swing in conference dominance. The public will always bet the top 3-5 teams but getting value on the not so entertaining teams like the Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, etc. is were you can get some value. With rules changing this year some of my stats and trends are out the window. But, again, handicapping NBA non-elite teams this year could be what makes another profitable year and even bigger for my best bets. Also look for tons of NBA teams playing at a higher pace because of how their rosters are setup and we could see tons of points scored this year in the NBA. I am a guy that loves betting totals so this could be a huge NBA season.

STRIKE POINT SPORTS – In the NBA bettors are constantly looking for an edge. It isn't the easiest sport due to players resting and the dreaded back-to-backs, or even worse, back-to-back-to-backs. Players are asked to play a lot of minutes each night and due to this teams decide to rest players and don't make it public until after gamblers have already done their research on the lines. Fear not, my friends, as there are some opportunities to take advantage of during the dog days of the NBA schedule. One such opportunity is when a teams best player doesn't play. This DNP could be due to an injury or because of rest. Many times oddsmakers will adjust a line in order to sway the public in this situation. It is important to not always just fade the team that isn't with their best player. In this spot the 'short-handed' team has value as players that aren't often given a shot to make a statement do so. A teams best player controls the basketball and a lot of times they take possessions away from other capable players. An NBA player gets time because he is good enough to make a difference. We used to love taking the Lakers when Kobe didn't play. Now, don't get us wrong, Kobe is an all-time great. But when he didn't play his teammates did their best to shine. They didn't always win, but they were always scrappy and would have plenty of value.

ALLEN EASTMAN – I think that one of the most important tips I can give to NBA bettors is to always be aware of the trends. I am a big trend player. And not just the trends that go back for one or two years. I like trends that go back five, 10 or even 12 years. There are some teams that don't play well in certain cities. Places like Utah and Portland can be horrible for opposing teams and some guys just never play well there. The more history you have the better the trend and then the stronger the play. .

JASON SHARPE – For me an NBA best bet usually involves finding a team that's going through some recent lineup changes due to injuries, trades or any other reason. For instance, if a player that is a starter gets hurt for a team and he's more of an offensive type player and he is replaced by more of a 'defensive-first' type player than I will tend to look towards betting an 'under' on this team, especially if a few other things come into play. And if more than one new player enters into the rotation that usually means I'm looking to strongly back something. The bottom line is the NBA betting market, like most professional sports leagues, is controlled by what I call 'the computer algorithm handicappers'. These guys will usually key in all the information on EACH team into their computers so each team has a game pace rating, a final score and offensive/defensive rating per possession to name a few stats that they all look at. My thinking is that these past stats for each team were accomplished when certain player(s) were on the floor and now if that team has a few different changes to who's representing them than we should expect some much different type results. The best time of the season to take advantage of these 'best bets' is usually at the beginning of the season involving a team that is using a few new players from the previous season and then again around the NBA trade deadline. Teams will quickly change the way they look and play when they have a different cast of characters on the floor. It's during this time of the season that you will see a lot of change and change is what we are looking for to get us one step ahead of the computer guys.

Best Basketball Tips Today

ALAN HARRIS – My main advice when looking for a top NBA play is do not overreact to injuries. Other than a quarterback in the NFL, a star player in the NBA has the biggest impact on a point spread. In the NBA, if LeBron James or Kevin Durant is announced out, both sharps and squares alike will run to the window with the thought that 'there's no way that team X can win without player Y.' Now, the Cavs or Warriors won't be as good long-term without those guys. But for that one game it's really not that big of a deal. The immediate thought is that the team is losing a bunch of points or rebounds but people don't take into account that yes, the backups are putting up less per game in those categories, but they are also doing it in less minutes. Also, starters will usually step up in a game where it's announced that one of the big guns will be out. We worked this strategy to perfection last season in a game between the Raptors and the Pacers. Kyle Lowry was hurt, listed as questionable, and there was a thought that he might come back that night. The overnight line opened up at the Raptors (-7) and it was announced early that Lowry wouldn't be playing. The line immediately dropped to -5 and that's where we jumped on it. What happened? DeMar DeRozan dropped 40, three other starters scored in double digits, and Delon Wright, who got some run due to the injury, chipped in with 11-2-6. Toronto wound up winning 111-100 and we wound up cashing a nice ticket on the Raptors.

VERNON CROY – When it comes to making a big play in the NBA, I look for motivation by a certain team and I also look for situational trends. How tired is the team I'm going against; did they just play three games in four nights or are they coming off a close loss against a division rival? Is the team I'm taking playing with extra rest and what is their motivation level for this game, as we have all seen teams take nights off in the NBA? I also look at the injury reports and study stats from when these teams have played in the past. Normally when there is a key player injured the books over adjust the lines leaving lots of value for taking the team with the injury, as they will pick up their game to make up for the loss of their star player. Is there a revenge factor or does a certain team play another team harder than others, or is this a letdown spot? These are just some of the several factors that go into making a big play in the NBA for me, and after 18-years I'm still adjusting my systems and analytics to be the best I can possibly be to give my clients an significant edge over the books.

TONY GEORGE – An NBA Handicapping tip I use involves scheduling and more specifically East and West Coast road swings. I like to fade teams, especially good teams towards the end of a long road trip when they are laying points. As an example, say the Cavs are playing their fifth road game in six or seven days on the West Coast. And after playing the Suns, Lakers, Clippers and Jazz, now they have lowly Sacramento. When this scenario occurs, a good team will generally be laying six or more points to their weak opponent. I like to fade them and take the points. Road weary teams play little defense down the stretch and do what they have to do to just win a game many times.

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DOUG UPSTONE - The methodology I use is by starting to create a spread based on three power ratings I use. They all have various components, designed to cover different aspects of the teams in a particular contest. Next, is the statistical advantages one team might have over another, particularly at quarterback, running the ball, stopping the run and rushing the opposing quarterback. If those show up as more one-way edges and match my power rankings, I move to the next step. That would be finding systems I have developed and look to find more evidence of a special play, and specifically I'm after ones that have a 75 percent or higher cover rate and with a minimum of 30 game outcomes and the scoring average rather easily covers the spread. Up next is reviewing situational aspects, that are team specific, which often can be nuggets of extremely useful information. The cherry on the top of the cake is looking at line movement or the lack of it in the first part of the week. If the power ratings are strong, the stats are in my favor, a system or two light up, and the situation is nicely favorable on the NFL contest that is not on everyone's radar to start a week, that is what I'm looking for in a big play!

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